The results that would send Croatia through to Euro 2024 knockout stages after Italy draw

Croatia ended the group stage on two points – but can still manage to qualify.

Croatia can still go through to the Euro 2024 knockout stages despite only finishing on two points – but need certain results to go their way.

Luka Modric’s second-half goal for Croatia would have meant they leapfrogged Italy into second place in Group B, and ensured their automatic qualification for the round of 16.

But Italy scored a 97th-minute equaliser through Mattia Zaccagni, which meant they went through automatically at the expense of their opponents.

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Croatia finish their group campaign in third place on two points which, given their minus three goal difference, will likely not be enough to make it through to the round of 16. Four of the six best third-placed teams will progress.

However, although Zlatko Dalic’s side will now be looking nervously at the other games to decide their fate, there is a specific set of results that would see them go through against all odds.

Fortunately for Croatia, they are provisionally in fifth place in the six-team ranking ahead of Czechia, but they still have a game to play in Group F.

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Their task is made even harder by the fact that the third-placed teams in Group A – already confirmed as Hungary – Group D and Group E are all guaranteed to finish ahead of them by virtue of collecting three points.

It is in Group C and Group F, though, where Croatia could yet be provided with a tournament lifeline.

If Slovenia and Serbia both lose to England and Denmark, Dalic’s side can still finish ahead of the third-placed side, who would be Slovenia.

But they would need Slovenia to lose by more than three goals – or exactly 3-0, to finish ahead of them on goals scored – to leapfrog them in the third-placed table. If that occurs, Denmark would also have to beat Serbia.

Mattia Zaccagni scores a dramatic late equaliser for Italy in their 1-1 draw with Croatia (
Getty)

Meanwhile, defeats for both Czechia and Georgia to Turkey and Portugal in Group F would restrict them to one point, and mean that Croatia would also finish ahead of them. Both of the above permutations must happen, however.

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All in all, it appears more likely than not that Croatia will not get through to the knockout stages – but stranger things have certainly happened in tournament football.