For months, much has been made of the budding romance between Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce and pop icon Taylor Swift. Yet only now, with the emergence of new data, is it becoming clear that sportsbooks are going out of their way to profit off Swifties. How? By offering implausible—some might even say exploitative—odds on Travis Kelce prop bets.

A sign referring to Taylor Swift is seen in the stands during the first half of a Kansas City Chiefs NFL football game, Monday, Dec. 25, 2023, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)AP

Understanding implied probability in NFL odds

To understand how sportsbooks are profiting off the Travis-Taylor (dare I say…”Traylor”?) hype, you’ll need to understand implied probability. This concept translates betting odds into a percentage, which represents likelihood of success.

For example, a winning bet with +100 odds produces a 100% payout and carries an implied probability of 50%. If, in reality, that +100 bet has less than a 50% chance of winning, it should have longer odds and a higher payout.

Usually, sportsbooks set reasonable odds. For Travis Kelce, especially post-Taylor, that isn’t the case.

A pair of Kansas City Chiefs fans hold Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift cutouts during an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023 in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)AP

Analyzing Kelce’s odds against the Bills

On Tuesday, data analysts released the results of 10,000 simulations of Sunday’s Bills vs. Chiefs game, including player touchdown likelihoods. Travis Kelce was given a 22.4% chance to score.

FanDuel, one of the most popular sportsbooks in the country, currently offers +125 odds for a Kelce touchdown. These odds imply a 44% success chance, significantly higher than Kelce’s 22.4%. The payout is thus disproportionately low. And it’s worse than it sounds.

Perspective with real numbers

A $100 bet on Kelce at +125 odds with FanDuel yields $125. But fair odds, reflecting his 22.4% chance, would be +346, offering a $346 profit—276% more than FanDuel!

The next step is questioning whether sportsbooks apply similar strategies across all NFL prop markets or specifically target Kelce. Examining FanDuel’s treatment of Bills QB Josh Allen offers insight.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) crosses the goal line for a touchdown during an NFL wild-card playoff football game, Monday, Jan. 15, 2024, in Buffalo, N.Y. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)AP

Comparing Kelce’s odds to Josh Allen’s

FanDuel’s odds for Allen scoring a touchdown against the Chiefs are -105 with an implied probability of 51.2%. Yet, analysts assess Allen’s actual touchdown likelihood at 63.5%. This suggests FanDuel’s odds for an Allen touchdown are not only more reasonable than Kelce’s, but in fact superior for the bettor than the sportsbook.

If any question remained about the sportsbook’s motives, this all but answers it. The stark contrast between FanDuel’s reasonable odds for Allen and lopsided odds for Kelce seems to stem from the belief that Swifties will bet on Taylor’s beau no matter how bad the value.

What can you do about it?

Firstly, avoid betting on Travis Kelce.

The proactive approach? Bet on Josh Allen instead. Bettors can profit from bad odds, just like sportsbooks. The trick is finding an edge, and that’s been done for you.

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Better, Allen isn’t the only option in a packed weekend Playoff football. You can use this implied probability calculator to check every bet’s value, and these NFL projections for additional data.

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