Supercomputer predicts Premier League 2024/25 season including winner and relegation

Manchester City will go into the 2024-25 Premier League season chasing a fifth successive title, and predictions from a supercomputer have backed them to do just that.

Pep Guardiola’s side were run close last season. Liverpool topped the table at the start of April before falling away, while Arsenal were still in with a chance of top spot going into the final round of fixtures.

There has been plenty of change over the summer, with several clubs appointing new managers. Among them are Liverpool and Chelsea, who are both chasing improved performances after bringing in Arne Slot and Enzo Maresca respectively.

Last season saw all three promoted sides drop straight back down to the Championship, but Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton are all hoping to avoid a repeat. And, according to Grosvenor Sport’s supercomputer, two of them will stay up by the skin of their teeth.

The supercomputer, essentially a probability model, simulates each Premier League game 1,000 times over to predict results for each game. With those results, based on factors including team strength and betting markets and incorporating an element of randomness, a final table is generated.

It gives Manchester City a huge 90 percent chance of the title at this stage, though it acknowledges predictions can change as teams sign new players and other factors change. Last season’s runners-up Arsenal are second favourites, after finishing two points adrift last term.

The final table has City in top spot with 94 points, three points more than last season. It places Arsenal second, with three points fewer than last term, leaving the gap at eight, with Liverpool third above Manchester United despite Erik ten Hag’s side winning the league in more simulations than Arne Slot’s men.

FA Cup winners Manchester United are tipped to return to the top four (
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PA)
At the other end of the table, the supercomputer believes Ipswich Town will finish bottom. The Tractor Boys, who finished second in the Championship last season, have retained the services of manager Kieran McKenna despite reports of Chelsea interest but are being backed to struggle.

The other relegation spots, however, are filled by teams who played Premier League football last season. Wolves are predicted to finish 19th with 29 points – 11 more than Ipswich – with Nottingham Forest in 18th.

Forest’s predicted tally of 32 points is just two fewer than the 34 predicted for Leicester, who have Forest’s former manager Steve Cooper in the dugout. Just one point above the Foxes sit Southampton and Brighton, who the supercomputer is tipping to fall away after the departure of manager Roberto De Zerbi.

Championship play-off winners Southampton are backed to stay up (
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Simon Dael/REX/Shutterstock)
The upcoming season could yet be Pep Guardiola’s last at the Etihad Stadium. The Catalan is among those being considered to succeed Gareth Southgate as England manager, with suggestions an interim candidate could take charge of the national side until the end of the domestic season.

“A national team,” Guardiola told ESPN in February when asked what he had left to achieve. “I would like to train a national team for a World Cup or a European Championship. I would like that.

“I would like to have the experience of living through a World Cup, or a Euro or a Copa America, or whatever it is. I would like that. I don’t know when that would be, if that is five, 10, 15 years from now but I would like to have the experience of being a manager in a World Cup.”

Guardiola’s City have averaged 89.75 points per season over the last four campaigns, winning the title each time. If the supercomputer proves correct, they’ll lift that average above 90 with another first-place finish this term.

Arsenal were Manchester City’s closest challengers last season (
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Premier League 2024-25 table (according to Grosvenor Sport’s supercomputer):